Australia’s top election analyst has been tweeting about the results and as he points out, the Conservatives have actually received a higher share of the vote than the Liberals. The former is predicted to receive 34.4% of the overall vote, compared to 33.2% for the Conservatives.
This is largely the result of much of their support being concentrated in areas like Alberta and Saskatchewan, where there are not a huge number of seats, or ridings, as they are called in Canada.
Dramatic upsets as cabinet ministers, deputy Conservative leader, and opposition party leader lose their seats
Leyland Cecco reports on the upsets in tonight’s results:
Despite maintaining power, Trudeau has lost a number of cabinet ministers. The most stunning defeat was veteran lawmaker and public safety minister Ralph Goodale, who has represented Saskatchewan since 1993.
In Alberta, both Amarjeet Sohi, the natural resource minister and Randy Boissonnault lost their seats, a result that means the neither Alberta nor Saskatchewan will have representation in Trudeau’s federal government as frustration in the western region of the country continues to amplify.
The Conservative party also took a heavy loss, with deputy party leader Lisa Raitt losing her race to former Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden.
Maxime Bernier, leader of the populist People’s Party of Canada, which critics have called xenophobic and racist, has lost his seat. Without Bernier’s much-needed win, the former Conservative minister’s newly-formed party will have no presence in the house of commons – making its future unclear.
Greens leader Elizabeth May will hold on to her seat, giving the Greens two confirmed and two expected seats.
Leyland Cecco writes:
Without his majority, Trudeau will have to reach out to other parties in order to prop up his Liberal party— and how they will cobble together the 170 votes needed. Rather than create a formal coalition, the prime minister will likely use a process known as confidence and supply, in which the Liberals reach out to different parties in order to secure votes for legislation.
The results open the door to the leftwing New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois to the balance of power a minority government.
The star of the evening was Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc which managed to more than triple its seat count over the 2015 election.
Jagmeet Singh of the leftwing NDP, who surged in the polls in the final weeks of the campaign with the aid of viral social media videos, wasn’t able to convert the popularity into electoral wins. The party’s 44 seats were nearly cut in half.
The results tracker at the top of this blog shows the number of declared seats for each party, which confusingly seems to suggest that the Conservatives will win more seats that the Liberals, but below you’ll also see the number of predicted seats for each party, which give Trudeau’s Liberal a lead over Scheer’s Conservatives.
Andrew Scheer set to hold on to his seat
He may not become Canada’s next prime minister, but Andew Scheer is set to retain his seat.
Pretty grim scenes at the Conservative Party headquarters, as results come in predicting Trudeau will hold on to power, albeit probably in a minority government.
Leyland Cecco has this interpretation of events:
Justin Trudeau will hold on to power – but a number of tight races mean it is unclear how strong his mandate will be.
With results still to come, the Liberal party have a large enough lead over the rival Conservative party to continue governing, but have not yet reached enough seats to preserve their parliamentary majority. With the prospects of a minority government, election results will prove critical in determining which parties hold the balance of power moving forward.
Stewart Prest, from the department of political science at Simon Fraser University, sounds a note of caution after CBC predicted a Liberal minority government.
Martin Patriquin who is at the Liberal Party headquarters in Montreal writes that cheers erupted as CBC and Radio-Canada just called a Justin Trudeau government.
“Four more years!” chants the crowd—though it is still unknown whether it is going to be a minority or a majority government.
CBC call election for Justin Trudeau
CBC have called the election for Trudeau, though have said “whether it will be a minority or majority government remains to be seen.”